Lamia 1-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Volos NFC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Volos NFC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Lamia, 1.00 for Volos NFC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lamia lead 0W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 44% versus Volos NFC 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 46% | Volos NFC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.68 xG and Volos NFC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 1.017 / defence 1.191 | Volos NFC attack 0.827 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.104. Data: 39 Lamia games / 39 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 50% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 4.35. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 50% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamia 1.68 / Volos NFC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 1.017 / def 1.191 | Volos NFC attack 0.827 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Lamia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Volos NFC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Volos NFC kick off?
Lamia vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Lamia 1 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Lamia vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Volos NFC part of?
Lamia vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamia and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Volos NFC?
Record (5 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 4 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are Lamia and Volos NFC in?
Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lamia's attack rating (1.02) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.83x) against Lamia's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.64
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.77
1.09
Volos NFC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
4%
23.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lamia and 1.09 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamia's recent record stands at 9W 18D 19L from 46 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 23L across 46 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Lamia against 1.02 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.96 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 18D 19L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Volos NFC away?
Lamia's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.27 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Volos NFC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Volos NFC 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 50% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC in 32%; Lamia have failed to score in 27% of games; Volos NFC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 32% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 50% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.68 xG and Volos NFC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Volos NFC attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 50% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 23%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 46%, Volos NFC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.98 PPG, Volos NFC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.