Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Asteras Tripolis take on Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos meet at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 4). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Asteras Tripolis's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Asteras Tripolis have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Panetolikos have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Panetolikos away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panetolikos are 0.60 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis over their recent games (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 for Panetolikos and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 1–3 Panetolikos — a Panetolikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 48% versus Panetolikos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 46% | Panetolikos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.841 / defence 1.167 | Panetolikos attack 0.814 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and Panetolikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.21 | Draw 2.83 | Panetolikos 2.99. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Asteras Tripolis's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.97 / Panetolikos 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.841 / def 1.167 | Panetolikos attack 0.814 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Panetolikos xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Group - 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.84) and Panetolikos's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.81x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and Panetolikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.83
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.98
1.01
Panetolikos xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.01 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 15D 29L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 20W 14D 27L from 61 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.21 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.20 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 6D 14L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 10W 10D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.90 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
Asteras Tripolis (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.20 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Panetolikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Panetolikos 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Asteras Tripolis) and 23% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games; Panetolikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 37% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 23% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 63% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.08 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.