Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Asteras Tripolis face Kifisia.

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Match Analysis

Asteras Tripolis host Kifisia at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1 (Relegation Group - 9). Kick-off is Saturday 16 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Asteras Tripolis stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Asteras Tripolis at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Kifisia have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Asteras Tripolis at 1.60 PPG versus Kifisia's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Kifisia 1, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Apr 2026, ended Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Kifisia — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Kifisia in-play tendencies (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus Kifisia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | Kifisia 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.48 xG and Kifisia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.859 / defence 1.149 | Kifisia attack 0.831 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Asteras Tripolis's projected output up. Data: built from Asteras Tripolis's last 52 games and Kifisia's last 26.

Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 46% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 24%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.18 | Draw 3.32 | Kifisia 4.15. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Asteras Tripolis 50% (last 10 home games) | Kifisia 60% (last 10 away games).

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