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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Group - 10 sees Larisa travel to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis to take on Kifisia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kifisia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Kifisia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Larisa — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Larisa's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kifisia 1.10 PPG, Larisa 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kifisia have won 0, Larisa 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Kifisia in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Larisa in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 57% versus Larisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 51% | Larisa 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.20 xG and Larisa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.888 / defence 1.188 | Larisa attack 0.744 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kifisia 40% | Draw 34% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Larisa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kifisia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kifisia 40% | Larisa 60%.

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