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Poisson rates Atromitos at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Atromitos encounter.

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Match Analysis

Larisa host Atromitos at AEL FC Arena in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at AEL FC Arena, Larisa have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Larisa are significantly better at AEL FC Arena than their overall form suggests.

Atromitos — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Atromitos's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atromitos — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Larisa have won 0, Atromitos 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Atromitos winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Larisa in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).

Atromitos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 59% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 35% | Atromitos 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 0.86 xG and Atromitos 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.787 / defence 1.245 | Atromitos attack 0.929 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Larisa's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Larisa games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Larisa 24% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 43%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Atromitos 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Larisa 60% | Atromitos 30% BTTS from recent games.

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