Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lamia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Aris Thessalonikis, 2 for Lamia and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Lamia trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 45% versus Lamia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Lamia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.97 xG and Lamia 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.098 / defence 0.927 | Lamia attack 1.078 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Draw 26% | Lamia 25%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Lamia 4.00. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Lamia 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Draw 26% | Lamia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.97 / Lamia 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.098 / def 0.927 | Lamia attack 1.078 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Lamia xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 50% chance of winning, Lamia a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Record (6 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 2W | Draws 2 | Lamia 2W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.92
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
3.33
1.36
Lamia xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
3%
29.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.36 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 11D 22L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 1.05 PPG from 60 outings (14W 21D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aris Thessalonikis's home form reads 18W 4D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (4W 13D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 25L in their last 60 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Lamia away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lamia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
2
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Lamia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 59%, Lamia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (Lamia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Lamia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 48% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 52% of Lamia's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Lamia tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Lamia in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.97 xG and Lamia 1.36 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Lamia attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Draw 26% | Lamia 25%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 52%, Lamia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.