Lamia 0-4 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host AEK Athens FC at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AEK Athens FC have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Lamia.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
It is worth noting that AEK Athens FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 51% versus AEK Athens FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 51% | AEK Athens FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.26 xG and AEK Athens FC 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.889 / defence 1.095 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.452 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | AEK Athens FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 70% | AEK Athens FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Lamia 1.26 / AEK Athens FC 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.889 / def 1.095 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.452 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.16
AEK Athens FC xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Lamia 0 - 4 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 20% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamia and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
Record (6 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 6W.
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.89) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
20%
5.00
24%
4.21
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.42
2.16
AEK Athens FC xG
5.00
20%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
12%
8.68
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
2%
43.38
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lamia and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Lamia and 2.16 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 59 games, going 14W 21D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.31 PPG from 59 outings (41W 13D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 10W 7D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.14 points per game from 29 outings (18W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.10 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 24L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 41W 13D 5L in their last 59 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.28 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Lamia or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, AEK Athens FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 52% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 45%; Lamia have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 48% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 52% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-4 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.26 xG and AEK Athens FC 2.16 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 2.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.45 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 20% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 56%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 51%, AEK Athens FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.