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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aris Thessalonikis and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 xG and Kifisia 0.79 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.84 / defence 0.80 against Kifisia attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 47/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 28% | Kifisia 19%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 30%, Kifisia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Kifisia's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.20 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights