Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atromitos at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1W 8D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atromitos — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Aris Thessalonikis: 5 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Atromitos, with 2 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 Atromitos — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
The head-to-head data gives Aris Thessalonikis an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 51% versus Atromitos 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Atromitos 47%). Note also that Atromitos surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Aris Thessalonikis recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 xG and Atromitos 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.788 / defence 0.836 | Atromitos attack 1.067 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.123. Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 49 games and Atromitos's last 49.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 35%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.04 | Draw 3.14 | Atromitos 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), yet Atromitos are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 / Atromitos 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.788 / def 0.836 | Atromitos attack 1.067 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Atromitos xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 33% chance of winning, Atromitos a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 49 games and Atromitos's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
33%
3.04
32%
3.14
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.96
1.00
Atromitos xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.00 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 22W 18D 15L from 55 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.53 PPG, Atromitos on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 13W 11D 3L from their last 27 home games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 14W 4D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.27 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.15 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 18D 15L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.85 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Atromitos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Atromitos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 44%, Atromitos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 56% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 30% of games; Atromitos in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 48% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 56% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 78% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Aris Thessalonikis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kleanthis Vikelidis Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.95 xG and Atromitos 1.00 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against Atromitos attack 1.07 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 35%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.53 PPG, Atromitos 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.