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Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Levadiakos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 4-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.94 xG and Levadiakos 1.15 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Levadiakos attack 1.31 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 55% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 21%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 40%, Levadiakos 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Levadiakos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.92 PPG, Levadiakos 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights