AEK Athens FC 1-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Larisa encounter.

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Full Analysis

Allwyn Arena plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Larisa in Super League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Larisa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Larisa away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in AEK Athens FC's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for AEK Athens FC, 0 for Larisa and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended AEK Athens FC 1–1 Larisa — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.

Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 35% versus Larisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AEK Athens FC 39% | Larisa 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 2.20 xG and Larisa 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.385 / defence 0.700 | Larisa attack 0.790 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.111. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.385 — their 2.20 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Larisa's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. AEK Athens FC have a tight defence (rating 0.700), which is pulling Larisa's projected output down. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 49 games and Larisa's last 23.

Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.36 | Draw 5.62 | Larisa 11.51. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (74%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Larisa 50% (last 10 away games).

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