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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Larisa 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AEK Athens FC beat Larisa 1-0 at Allwyn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 2.20 xG and Larisa 0.61 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.70 against Larisa attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 49/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 74% | Draw 18% | Larisa 9%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 39%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AEK Athens FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.

Larisa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights