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Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-0 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.35 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.36 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 61%, 1. FC Heidenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights