Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Werder Bremen face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg meet at Weserstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Werder Bremen have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, FC Augsburg have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.20 for FC Augsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 3 for FC Augsburg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 FC Augsburg — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 61% and FC Augsburg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 63% | FC Augsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.27 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.070 / defence 1.198 | FC Augsburg attack 0.847 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.445. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 51 games and FC Augsburg's last 51.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 56% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.80 | Draw 4.98 | FC Augsburg 4.12. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.27 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 56% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Werder Bremen 2.27 / FC Augsburg 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.070 / def 1.198 | FC Augsburg attack 0.847 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 56% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (1.07) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.85x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 51 games and FC Augsburg's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
56%
1.80
20%
4.98
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.74
1.47
FC Augsburg xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
10%
9.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
3%
39.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.47 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Werder Bremen come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 14D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (15W 13D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.14 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Werder Bremen's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.35 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 63%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs FC Augsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 13D 23L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg, the earliest from May 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won FC Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
5
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 64%, FC Augsburg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Werder Bremen and 68% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Werder Bremen's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Werder Bremen's matches and 68% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 92% of FC Augsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 2.27 xG and FC Augsburg 1.47 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 56% | Draw 20% | FC Augsburg 24%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, FC Augsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.33 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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