VfB Stuttgart 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 6W 2D 2L at MHPArena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SC Freiburg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Freiburg's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SC Freiburg, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Freiburg have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 61% and SC Freiburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.075 / defence 1.022 | SC Freiburg attack 0.766 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.415. Data: 51 VfB Stuttgart games / 51 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 64% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 17%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | SC Freiburg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
SC Freiburg lead the H2H ledger, but VfB Stuttgart carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 64% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.28 / SC Freiburg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.075 / def 1.022 | SC Freiburg attack 0.766 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SC Freiburg xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
VfB Stuttgart 4 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 64% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
Record (7 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 5W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.07x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.77x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.20
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.39
1.11
SC Freiburg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
2%
57.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.11 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 51 games, going 31W 9D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.35 PPG from 51 outings (19W 12D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 18W 5D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 31W 9D 11L in their last 51 games (2.00 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or SC Freiburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.27 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 5-0 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
6
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, SC Freiburg have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 65%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for VfB Stuttgart and 65% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 35%; SC Freiburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 65% of SC Freiburg's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.11 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against SC Freiburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 64% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 17%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.