Union Berlin 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, FC Augsburg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Union Berlin's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
It is worth noting that FC Augsburg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 42% versus FC Augsburg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 44% | FC Augsburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.778 / defence 0.891 | FC Augsburg attack 0.772 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.418. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Union Berlin games / 50 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Union Berlin 1.80 / FC Augsburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.778 / def 0.891 | FC Augsburg attack 0.772 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 January 2025 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 0 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 57% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
Record (6 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 3 | FC Augsburg 3W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.78) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.77x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
57%
1.77
23%
4.30
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.77
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
29.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.98 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 11D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.10 PPG from 50 outings (14W 13D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.10 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 10W 5D 9L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.71 points per game from 24 outings (4W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.34 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 23L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.46 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 54%, FC Augsburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 71% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Union Berlin's games and 62% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 71% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against FC Augsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 44%, FC Augsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.