🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.08 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.81 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.80 / defence 1.16 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 23% | Draw 23% | Borussia Dortmund 54%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 60%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Werder Bremen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights