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Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Volkswagen Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.03 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 39% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 35%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 65%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights