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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG and Borussia Dortmund 2.25 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.26 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.82, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 21% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 57%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 61%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights