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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.23 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.25 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.23 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 50%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 59%, Bayer Leverkusen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights