🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Wolfsburg face Bayer Leverkusen.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as VfL Wolfsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Volkswagen Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Form Guide

VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

VfL Wolfsburg's home record at Volkswagen Arena: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bayer Leverkusen have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Bayer Leverkusen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 66% and Bayer Leverkusen 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 59% | Bayer Leverkusen 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.67 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.858 / defence 1.253 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.232 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 VfL Wolfsburg games / 44 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 50%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.00. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights