VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Union Berlin 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat Union Berlin 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.63 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 74%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Union Berlin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights