VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.20) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.63x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.32
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.53
0.90
Union Berlin xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.90 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.