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Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.28 xG and SC Freiburg 1.11 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against SC Freiburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 64% | Draw 19% | SC Freiburg 17%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights