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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out RB Leipzig 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat RB Leipzig 1-0 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.51 xG and RB Leipzig 1.32 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Leipzig landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against RB Leipzig attack 1.11 / defence 0.85, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | RB Leipzig 32%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, RB Leipzig 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.64 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights