VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VfB Stuttgart face Borussia Dortmund.

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Match Analysis

VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund at MHPArena in Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 4 April 2026 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

VfB Stuttgart — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, VfB Stuttgart have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Borussia Dortmund away from home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfB Stuttgart 2.10 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and Borussia Dortmund 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Borussia Dortmund 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.42 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.011 / defence 0.773 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.186 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.440. VfB Stuttgart have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Borussia Dortmund's projected output down. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 61 games and Borussia Dortmund's last 61.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 39% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 35%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.55 | Draw 3.84 | Borussia Dortmund 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Borussia Dortmund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 50% (last 10 home games) | Borussia Dortmund 80% (last 10 away games).

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