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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln.

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Full Analysis

MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Current Form

VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.

VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.

1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.

1. FC Köln's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Historically, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with 1. FC Köln managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.

The historical record gives VfB Stuttgart a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and 1. FC Köln 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 71% | 1. FC Köln 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.839 / defence 0.917 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.792 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.393. Data: 55 VfB Stuttgart games / 21 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 4.55. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | 1. FC Köln 60%.

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