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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Köln.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 3-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.62 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights