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Dominant Werder Bremen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Werder Bremen beat Union Berlin 1-4 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.47 xG and Werder Bremen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 0.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Werder Bremen attack 0.72 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 28% | Werder Bremen 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Werder Bremen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.19 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights