SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host Bayer Leverkusen at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 53% versus Bayer Leverkusen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 0.82 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.686 / defence 1.405 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.363 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.256. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 2.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 19 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 53 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 10% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 10.00 | Draw 5.26 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.39. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 10% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 52% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 0.82 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.41 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.686 / def 1.405 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.363 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
2.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 10% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 72% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.69x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 2.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-3 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
10%
10.16
19%
5.39
72%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.22
2.41
Bayer Leverkusen xG
10.16
10%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
1.40
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
9%
11.10
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
1%
112.81
32%
3.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.41 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 22W 12D 19L from 53 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 12L across 53 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Darmstadt 98 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 11W 8D 7L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 13W 7D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 12D 19L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.58 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.77 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 65% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 31%; Bayer Leverkusen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 0.82 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.41 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.69 / defence 1.41 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.36 / defence 0.69, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 10% | Draw 19% | Bayer Leverkusen 72%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 55%, Bayer Leverkusen 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.47. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.