SV Darmstadt 98 1-4 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome Union Berlin to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SV Darmstadt 98) versus 1.70 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 46% versus Union Berlin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 46% | Union Berlin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG and Union Berlin 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Union Berlin attack 0.958 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.969 / away 1.305. Data: 1 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 35 Union Berlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 41% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Union Berlin 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Union Berlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 41% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 / Union Berlin 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Union Berlin attack 0.958 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.969 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Union Berlin xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 4 Union Berlin.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 41% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.86x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
41%
2.42
25%
4.00
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.44
Union Berlin xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.44 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98's recent record stands at 20W 7D 8L from 35 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 8L across 35 games — 1.86 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.91 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SV Darmstadt 98 have managed 11W 5D 1L from 17 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 7W 2D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Union Berlin in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 7D 8L in their last 35 games (1.91 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Union Berlin away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.24 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.35 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Union Berlin 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 53%, Union Berlin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 53% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Union Berlin in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 47% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 53% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Berlin run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-4 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.61 xG and Union Berlin 1.44 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 41% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 34%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 46%, Union Berlin 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.91 PPG, Union Berlin 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.