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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Union Berlin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.33 xG and FC Augsburg 1.68 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against FC Augsburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 30% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 46%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 55%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.15 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights