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FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Augsburg beat Union Berlin 0-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.80 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.8 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 0.89 against FC Augsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 57% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 44%, FC Augsburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights