Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 5W 3D 2L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.70 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, SC Freiburg 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 68% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 62% | SC Freiburg 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.189 / defence 1.092 | SC Freiburg attack 0.757 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.460. Data: 50 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 50 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 19%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | SC Freiburg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | SC Freiburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 / SC Freiburg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.189 / def 1.092 | SC Freiburg attack 0.757 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SC Freiburg xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 4 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 60% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (6 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 3 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.74
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.44
1.21
SC Freiburg xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
2%
48.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.21 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 50 games, going 20W 17D 13L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.38 PPG from 50 outings (19W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.54 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 11W 10D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.04 points per game from 24 outings (7W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 17D 13L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.79 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 71%, SC Freiburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 62% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; SC Freiburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 42% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 62% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Eintracht Frankfurt run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat SC Freiburg 4-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.21 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against SC Freiburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | Draw 21% | SC Freiburg 19%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.