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Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 0-3 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.54 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.66 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.15 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 34% | Draw 27% | Borussia Dortmund 39%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights