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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 32, as Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.51 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.27 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.77 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 54%, 1. FC Köln 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Union Berlin's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.12 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights