SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees FC Augsburg travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.30 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Trading Patterns

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).

FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 60% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Augsburg 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.58 xG and FC Augsburg 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / defence 1.110 | FC Augsburg attack 1.295 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 SC Paderborn 07 games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 48%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.23 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 2.08. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | FC Augsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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