FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 46%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Borussia Dortmund travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2027, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Dortmund, who boast 6 victories compared to 2 for FC Augsburg.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 60% versus Borussia Dortmund 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 63% | Borussia Dortmund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.68 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 1.011 / defence 0.902 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.987 / away 1.333. Data: 35 FC Augsburg games / 35 Borussia Dortmund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 46% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 3.57. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 46% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Augsburg 1.68 / Borussia Dortmund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 1.011 / def 0.902 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.048 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.987 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at WWK Arena.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 46% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (10 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 2 | Borussia Dortmund 6W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (1.01) and Borussia Dortmund's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.83
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.94
1.26
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
5%
19.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.2 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.26 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg come into this having played 35 games, going 13W 7D 15L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 2.17 PPG from 35 outings (23W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Augsburg's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.88 points per game from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.06 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Borussia Dortmund in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 7D 5L in their last 35 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.71 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.88 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 53%, Borussia Dortmund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Augsburg) and 53% (Borussia Dortmund).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Borussia Dortmund in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Augsburg's games and 59% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 53% of Borussia Dortmund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.