Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 45%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Deutsche Bank Park, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayer Leverkusen's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Eintracht Frankfurt's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayer Leverkusen, who boast 8 victories compared to 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 75% and Bayer Leverkusen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | Bayer Leverkusen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.90 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.931 / defence 1.066 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.080 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. Data: 35 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 36 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 31%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.23. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Eintracht Frankfurt at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 45% | Draw 24% | Bayer Leverkusen 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.90 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.931 / def 1.066 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.080 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 45% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 8W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
45%
2.20
24%
4.23
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.45
1.55
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.32
5%
21.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.55 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 11W 12D 13L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 8W 4D 6L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.06 scored and 1.39 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.39 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2022, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Eintracht Frankfurt
0
Draws
8
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, Bayer Leverkusen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 67% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 67% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.