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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, as SC Freiburg and VfL Wolfsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.42 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 20% | VfL Wolfsburg 23%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights