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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 0-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 2.01 xG and Union Berlin 1.14 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 57% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union Berlin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.51 PPG, Union Berlin 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights