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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of RB Leipzig.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat RB Leipzig 4-1 at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.57 xG and RB Leipzig 1.46 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against RB Leipzig attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 40% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 36%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, RB Leipzig 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

RB Leipzig's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.48 PPG, RB Leipzig 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights