SC Freiburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SC Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Freiburg's home record at Europa-Park Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Freiburg at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with SC Freiburg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 56% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.912 / defence 0.966 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. Data: 45 SC Freiburg games / 45 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 37% | Draw 34% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 29%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights