Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SC Freiburg travel to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to take on Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Borussia Dortmund have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.60 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Borussia Dortmund hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 1 for SC Freiburg and 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Feb 2024, ended Borussia Dortmund 3–0 SC Freiburg — a Borussia Dortmund win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and SC Freiburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 66% | SC Freiburg 64%). Note also that SC Freiburg surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Borussia Dortmund recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.350 / defence 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.888 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.463. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.350 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 44 games and SC Freiburg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.10 | Draw 3.33 | SC Freiburg 4.45. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Borussia Dortmund 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.76 / SC Freiburg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.350 / def 0.916 | SC Freiburg attack 0.888 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.19
SC Freiburg xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg FAQs
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 48% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.35x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Borussia Dortmund's last 44 games and SC Freiburg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.33
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
SC Freiburg xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
4%
25.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.19 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 23W 10D 11L from 44 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 17L across 44 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Freiburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 3D 4L from their last 22 home games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund (Home) vs SC Freiburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 16W 11D 17L in their last 44 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.18 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won Borussia Dortmund 5-1 SC Freiburg.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 64%, SC Freiburg 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Borussia Dortmund and 64% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 41%; SC Freiburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 41% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 4-0 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.76 xG and SC Freiburg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against SC Freiburg attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 66%, SC Freiburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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