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SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.94 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.12 / defence 0.73, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 36% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 38%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 68%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.51 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights