Werder Bremen 0-4 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to Weserstadion to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen at Weserstadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weserstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Werder Bremen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 53% versus VfB Stuttgart 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 64% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.843 / defence 0.964 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.186 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.410. Data: 47 Werder Bremen games / 47 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 39%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 30% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Werder Bremen 1.53 / VfB Stuttgart 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.843 / def 0.964 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.186 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Werder Bremen 0 - 4 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (8 meetings): Werder Bremen 3W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.84x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.19x) against Werder Bremen's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
36%
2.81
25%
4.00
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.14
1.61
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.61 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen come into this having played 47 games, going 18W 13D 16L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (21W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Werder Bremen against 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Werder Bremen's home form reads 8W 8D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.48 points per game from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.81 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.39 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 48%, VfB Stuttgart 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Werder Bremen and 74% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Werder Bremen's games and 65% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Werder Bremen's matches and 74% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfB Stuttgart run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Werder Bremen 0-4 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.53 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.61 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.84 / defence 0.96 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.19 / defence 1.06, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 39%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.43 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.