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Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SC Freiburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 1-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.93 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.03 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights