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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.30 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 56% versus Borussia Dortmund 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.93 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.091 / defence 0.861 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.843 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.422. Data: 61 SC Freiburg games / 61 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.

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