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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.39 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 41% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 32%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 66%, Bayer Leverkusen 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights