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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Europa-Park-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.84 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 2.21 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.8 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.23 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 33% | Draw 20% | 1899 Hoffenheim 47%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 71%, 1899 Hoffenheim 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SC Freiburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights